Nabahirwa Edwine, Wenjuan Wang, Wei Song, Denis Ssebuggwawo. (2022). Detecting the Risk of Customer Churn in Telecom Sector: A Comparative Study. Mathematical Problems in Engineering, vol. 2022, Article ID 8534739, 16 pages, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/8534739
Abstract
Churn rate describes the rate at which customers abandon a product or service. Identifying churn-risk customers is essential for telecom sectors to retain old customers and maintain a higher competitive advantage. The purpose of this paper is to explore an effective method for detecting the risk of customer churn in telecom sectors through comparing the advanced machine learning methods and their optimization algorithms. Based on two different telecom datasets, Mutual Information classifier was firstly utilized to select the most critical features relevant to customer churn. Next, the controlled-ratio undersampling strategy was employed to balance both minority and majority classes. Key hyperparameter optimization algorithms of Grid Search, Random Search, and Genetic Algorithms were then combined to fit the three promising machine learning models-Random Forest, Support Vector Machines, and K-nearest neighbors into the customer churn prediction problem. Six evaluation metrics-Accuracy, Recall, Precision, AUC, F1-score and Mean Absolute Error, were last used to evaluate the performance of the proposed models. The experimental results have revealed that the RF algorithm optimized by Grid Search based on a low-ratio undersampling strategy (RF-GS-LR) outperformed other models in extracting hidden information and understanding future churning behaviors of customers on both datasets, with the maximum accuracy of 99% and 95% on the applied dataset 1-2 respectively.
Kamukama Ismail, Maiga Gilbert, Ssebuggwaawo Denis, Nabende Peter, Ali Mansourian. (2021). Spatial Variability of Typhoid Disease Incidences in Uganda Using Geographically Weighted Regression Approach. International Journal of Health Economics and Policy. Vol. 6, No. 2 , June 2021 , pp. 56 – 64. ISSN:2578-9295 (Print); ISSN: 2578-9309 (Online). http://www.ijhep.org/article/288/10.11648.j.hep.20210602.14, DOI: 10.11648/j.hep.20210602.14
Abstract: The spatial variability of typhoid disease incidences has not been accounted for, most especially in developing countries, which makes its surveillance inefficient and expensive. This research aimed at (i) exploring possible risk factors of typhoid disease and (ii) accounting for spatial variability of typhoid disease incidences using GWR approach. The research first explored possible risk factors of typhoid disease using global regression-Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model was used to account for spatial variability of typhoid disease incidences. Moran’s Index was used to confirm spatial patterns in the data. The research revealed that; poor handwashing practice, rainfall and poor drainage (floods effect) were responsible for spatial variability of typhoid disease locally (P<0.05). GWR model revealed that poor handwashing practice was mainly responsible for typhoid disease occurrences in Northern, Northwestern and Mid-central parts of the country while excessive rainfall was mainly responsible for occurrence of the disease in the Eastern and Western regions. Poor drainage was mainly influencing disease occurrences in Eastern and Southwestern parts of the country. In the analysis, GWR model performed better than global OLS model (R-squared=0.37, R-squared=0.25 respectively). A combination of poor handwashing practice, excessive rainfall and poor drainage accounts for spatial variability of typhoid disease incidences in Uganda. This knowledge is very essential for surveillance teams to (i) enforce preventive measures, (ii) prepare for outbreaks and (iii) make targeted interventions to eventually reduce operational costs.
Kamukama Ismail, Maiga Gilbert, Ssebuggwaawo Denis, Nabende Peter, Ali Mansourian. (2020). Spatial-Temporal Trends and Distribution Patterns of Typhoid Disease in Uganda from 2012 to 2017.: Geospatial Health Journal 2020 Vol.15(2): 326-336. ISSN 1827-1987 (Print), ISSN 1970-7096 (electronic). https://doi.org/10.4081/gh.2020.860
Abstract: Typhoid disease continues to be a global public health burden. Uganda is one of the African countries characterized by high incidences of typhoid disease. Over 80% of the Ugandan districts are endemic for typhoid, largely attributable to lack of reliable knowledge to support disease surveillance. Spatial-temporal studies exploring major characteristics of the disease within the local population have remained limited in Uganda. The main goal of the study was to reveal spatial-temporal trends and distribution patterns of typhoid disease in Uganda for the period 2012 to 2017. Spatial-temporal statistics revealed monthly and annual trends of the disease at both regional and national levels. Results show that outbreaks occurred during 2015 and 2017 in central and eastern regions, respectively. Spatial scan statistic using the discrete Poisson model revealed spatial clusters of the disease for each of the years from 2012 to 2017, together with populations at risk. Most of the disease clustering was in the central region, followed by western and eastern regions (P <0.01). The northern region was the safest throughout the study period. This knowledge helps surveillance teams to i) plan and enforce preventive measures; ii) effectively prepare for outbreaks; iii) make targeted interventions for resource optimization; and iv) evaluate effectiveness of the intervention methods in the study period. This exploratory research forms a foundation of using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) in other related subsequent research studies to discover hidden spatial patterns that are difficult to discover with conventional methods.
Godfrey Odongtoo, Denis Ssebuggwawo, Peter Okidi Lating. (2020). The mediating effect of effective decision making on the design of water resource management ICT model: The case of the management of Lake Victoria Basin. African Journal of Environmental Science and Technology Vol.14(5), pp. 123-131. ISSN: 1996-0786. DOI: 10.5897/AJEST2020.2843
Abstract: Partial Least Square-Structural Equation Modelling (PLS- SEM) technique was employed to evaluate the mediating effects of effective decision making on water resource management policies and water resource management frameworks in the design of water resource management ICT model for an integrated water resource management of Lake Victoria Basin (LVB). Researchers took a quantitative approach using smart-PLS version 3. The sample size of 152 respondents was computed from a population size of 245 persons across districts within LVB. This study received feedback from different experts involved in the management of water resources in LVB. The findings of the study discovered that water resource management policies and water resource management frameworks are significant and had positive effects on the design of water resource management ICT model when subjected to a mediation of effective decision making. The three exogenous latent constructs without mediation wholesomely explained 39.1% of the variance (R2) in the design of water resource management ICT model and 41.4% under the influence of a mediation. This study confirmed that effective decision making had a positive mediating effect in the relationship between the exogenous and endogenous variables. These findings can support practitioners and water managers engaged in the management of water resources in LVB and other water bodies elsewhere in the world.
Godfrey Odongtoo, Denis Ssebuggwawo, Peter Okidi Lating. (2020). Factors affecting the development of effective waterresource management policies: The case of the management of Lake Victoria Basin in Uganda. African Journal of Environmental Science and Technology. Vol.14(4), pp. 104-113. ISSN: 1996-0786. DOI: 10.5897/AJEST2020.2840
Abstract: Partial least square-structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) was used to evaluate the factors affecting the development of effective water resource management policies. Researchers employed a purposive sampling method to come up with the most suitable respondents. The sample size of 152 respondents was computed from a population size of 245 water experts within Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) in Uganda. The questionnaire was self-administered to 152 respondents to dig out their views based on their experiences in water resource management. The authors aimed to find out the relationship between efficiency of water allocation, natural hazards and risks, stakeholders’ participation, governance and decentralization, socio economic activities and effective water resource management policies. The findings of this study revealed that governance and decentralization, natural hazards and risks, and socio-economic activities had a significant positive effect on effective water resource management policies. Governance and decentralization had the highest path coefficient (β= 0.453 and p-values = 0.000). The R2 value was scored at 0.680, which collectively explained 68% of the overall variance in the development of the policies. The study recommends putting special attention on governance and decentralization for effective water resource management policies. These findings can support practitioners and decision makers engaged in the management of water resources within LVB and other water bodies worldwide.
Godfrey Odongtoo, Peter Okidi Lating, Denis Ssebuggwawo. (2019). An Integrated Solution for An Integrated Water Resource Management of LakeVictoria Basin (LVB). Annals of Valahia University of Targoviste. Geographical Series (2019), 19(1): 11-21. ISSN (Print): 2393-1485, ISSN (Online): 2393-1493. DOI: 10.2478/avutgs-2019-0002
Abstract:Lake Victoria Basin is a very important resource for the five riparian countries: Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi. The Lake Victoria Basin provides resources for fishing, agriculture, medicine, forestry, water transport and other economic activities. However, its surrounding is affected by population growth, urbanization, industrialization, increasing commercial activities and inadequate provision of sanitation services among others. These grossly affect the landscape and water resources around the lake basin. In this paper, a web based integrated solution prototype is presented. The system consists of web access, mobile access, web service handler, mobile service handler and a database. It can be used to address communication challenges by enhancing stakeholder’s participation, information sharing and enforcement of laws by timely communication and coordination of activities of good governance. The test results confirm that the system is effective and can be used to operate in real world environment in the management of water resources by providing the key actors with relevant information to facilitate decision making.
D. Ssebuggwawo, S.J.B.A. Hoppenbrouwers and H.A. Proper (2013). Applying AHP for Collaborative Modeling Evaluation – Experiences from a Modeling Experiment. International Journal of Information Systems Modeling and Design (IJISMD) (4)1, 1 – 24. IGI Global Publishing, USA. ISSN 1947 – 8186; eISSN 1947 – 8194.
Abstract: Collaborative modeling is one of the approaches used to enhance productivity in many enterprise modeling and system development projects. Determining the success of such a collaborative effort needs an evaluation of a number of factors which affect the quality of not only the end-products – the models, but also that of other modeling artifacts: the modeling language, the modeling procedure and the support tool. Although a number of quality frameworks have been developed, few of these frameworks have received practical validation and many offer little guidance about how the evaluation is operationalized. The Collaborative Modeling Evaluation (COME) framework presented in this paper offers a holistic approach to evaluation of the four modeling artifacts. It employs the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a well-established method from Operations Research, to score the artifacts’ quality dimensions and to aggregate the modelers’ priorities and preferences. Results from a modeling experiment demonstrate both the theoretical and practical significance of the framework. [Source]